What Changes When You Look Beneath the Average?

Modernization Minute | Quash

One thing that stood out to me in NCUA's latest state-level credit union data is just how much lending results can vary.

Nationally, loans grew 0.6% at the median over the year ending in the first quarter of 2026.

But that number looks very different depending on where you look.

Median loan growth was 5.4% in Vermont and 4.9% in Idaho.

Meanwhile, median loans outstanding declined in 17 states and Washington, D.C.

That data doesn't tell us why those differences exist.

And I think that's actually the more interesting point.

There could be many factors involved, and the NCUA figures alone don't establish the cause.

But they do demonstrate how much an aggregate figure can change when you start looking underneath it.

The same principle can be useful within an individual lending portfolio.

Instead of looking only at the overall approval rate, what happens when you look by product?

Or loan amount?

Or credit profile?

What happens to manual-review rates across different populations?

Where are declines concentrated and what are the recorded reasons?

You may find meaningful differences.

You may not.

And a difference doesn't automatically indicate a problem.

It gives you a place to ask another question.

Sometimes the most useful thing data can do isn't give you an answer. It shows you where to look next.

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